QUICK ANSWER

More than 5,000 finished condos across Metro Vancouver have never sold, and the homes sitting longest are the big ones, not the shoeboxes. Developers rarely cut the published price because a public discount reprices every unit in the building, so the money moves through closing credits and incentives instead. That means the sold comparables you pull on a new building can read higher than what buyers actually paid

Prefer to watch? The video version is below. The written breakdown follows.

There are two numbers in the September Real Property Data briefing that do not sit comfortably together.

More than 5,000 finished homes in Metro Vancouver have keys ready and no buyer. At the same time, developers are holding their price sheets steady.

Both are true, and the reason why is the most useful thing in this report for anyone buying or selling a Vancouver condo right now.

WHAT 5,000 UNSOLD HOMES ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE

Real Property Data counted more than 5,000 unsold condominium homes across 164 completed Metro Vancouver projects as of September 2026. Not under construction. Finished, with people already living in the buildings.

Valued at the prices comparable homes achieved in 2026, that is $4.45 billion of housing. About 4.3 million square feet of it.

That figure estimates what the homes are worth. It says nothing about what developers owe on them.

Ownership is concentrated. Of the 89 developers holding finished unsold stock, five hold 1,809 units between them. Ten hold roughly half of everything.

THE SUPPLY YOUR SEARCH DOESN'T SHOW

Your listing app shows you resale condos and some developer units. The rest moves through sales centres.

Practice varies by project. Some developer homes are listed on MLS and some are sold only in the sales centre, so what you see on your phone is a sample of the market rather than the whole of it.

That matters before you decide what any condo is worth.

WHO IS ACTUALLY STUCK

The story going around is that this is a glut of tiny investor shoeboxes nobody wants. The data says the opposite, and the gradient has no reversals in it.

Share of each size cohort still unsold:

Under 500 sq ft: 12.2 percent
500 to 699 sq ft: 13.6 percent
700 to 899 sq ft: 21.1 percent
900 to 1,099 sq ft: 22.9 percent
1,100 to 1,499 sq ft: 29.4 percent
1,500 sq ft and up: 41.6 percent

By bedroom count it runs the same direction. 27.3 percent of three-bedroom homes are unsold against 13.7 percent of one-bedrooms. The median unsold home is 850 square feet. The median one that sold is 735.

Height tells the same story. 24.3 percent of homes above the twentieth floor are unsold, which is the stock that carried the pro forma when these buildings were planned.

If you have spent four years trying to buy more space in this city, that is the best news in the report.

WHERE THE BACKLOG SITS

One caution before you get excited.

Of those 5,000-plus homes, Real Property Data counts 842 in the City of Vancouver. More than eight in ten sit somewhere else in the region.

This is not remote inventory, though. 3,186 of these homes, 64 percent of the total, are within 800 metres of a SkyTrain station. 1,460 are within 400 metres.

So the stock is transit-connected and it is mostly not in Vancouver. A condo forty minutes from the neighbourhood you want is no substitute for the neighbourhood you want. Your competition is the set of homes you would realistically choose instead. Same area, similar size, similar monthly costs.

The regional number tells you the market has a problem. The local count tells you how much room you have.

HOW A FINISHED BUILDING ENDS UP UNSOLD

It starts with how these projects get financed.

A condo tower takes years. Developers sell presales to secure construction financing. You will hear that lenders require 70 percent of a building pre-sold. Altus Group describes that figure as a lending convention rather than a regulation, and BCREA's CEO puts the working threshold closer to 60 percent. It varies by project and by lender.

So a tower can break ground with a third of its homes unsold. Demand shifts during the build. By completion, some of those homes never found a buyer.

There is a second route in. Presale buyers who signed in a stronger market are closing at today's values. BCFSA warns that a lender can appraise a finished presale below the contract price, and the buyer covers that gap in cash. Picture a $900,000 contract and an $800,000 appraisal.

Walking away carries its own bill. BCFSA warns the buyer risks the deposit, and that the developer can pursue the difference between the contract price and whatever the home eventually sells for, plus legal costs.

WHY DEVELOPERS WON'T PUBLISH A DISCOUNT

Here is the part that explains everything else.

A published price cut reprices the entire building. Every home still available, and every home already sold to somebody who signed last year. A developer will not do that to his own price sheet, and his lender has a view on it.

What he will do is deal with you one buyer at a time, at the table, if you ask.

WHAT A SALES CENTRE OFFERED MY CLIENTS

Three months ago I was working with clients on a completed building in Surrey. People had already moved in. These were finished homes that had never sold.

The sales centre told us they would come down $5,000 on a home listed at $369,000. Then they told us how.

The contract price would stay at $369,000. The $5,000 would come back to my clients as a rebate at closing.

I asked why. The answer was that they did not want the lower number showing up on MLS. The moment it does, the next buyer walking into that building has a new starting point, or asks them to match it on the spot.

So the sale records at $369,000. My clients pay $364,000. Anybody pulling sold comparables in that building sees the first number.

That is one building and one conversation, and I cannot speak for every developer. It did change how I read sold data on new construction, and it is why I always ask what is coming off at closing.

My clients did not take that deal. They walked, because they wanted more space than that home had. Which is the size data all over again.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

IF YOU ARE BUYING

Widen the search. Put completed developer homes beside resale in the same area. Ask the sales centre for the full availability list and which homes you can walk through today.

Ask a sharper question than how the project is doing. Ask how many homes are unsold on your floor and the two floors above it. That is who you compete with the day you go to sell.

Negotiate the whole package. Price, closing credit, parking, storage, upgrades, appliance package, completion date.

Price the extras at what they are worth to you. A $15,000 upgrade in a brochure adds $15,000 to the brochure. A parking stall you will never use is worth nothing.

Compare the effective number. One condo at $800,000 with no credit, another at $820,000 with a real $30,000 credit, nets out at $790,000 before taxes and other costs. Confirm with your lender how a credit gets treated before you count on it.

Get every term in writing. The dollar amount, the timing, the conditions. A promise in a sales centre does not close.

IF YOU ARE SELLING

Everything above is pointed at you.

Your competition is bigger than the resale listings you can see. Somewhere near you a developer is holding finished homes, carrying a construction loan, and watching his own month end.

Think about what that sales centre offered my clients. Five thousand dollars at closing, and the price sheet never moved. You cannot do that. You cannot hand somebody a closing credit, a parking stall, an appliance package and a new home warranty and keep your list price where it is.

So stop pricing against resale comparables alone. Find the closest completed buildings still holding developer homes, work out what a buyer nets there after credits, and price against that number.

Then lead with what a developer cannot put on a price sheet. Your building has years of strata minutes, a depreciation report, and a contingency fund with a real balance. A new building has a disclosure statement and a promise. Your buyer walks through the actual home and gets keys, with no completion window and no deposit sitting in trust while a building goes up.

Have your strata documents ready the day you list.

WHERE I LAND

Real Property Data estimates about 40 months to clear what is already built, at the pace of the first half of 2026, roughly 125 presale sales a month across these buildings. That assumes nothing else completes, and 2026 has been a heavy completion year.

Meanwhile CMHC reports Metro Vancouver condo starts fell another 40 percent in the first half of 2026, the weakest first half since 2011. A start is counted once the concrete footings are poured, so that is a separate measurement from finished homes standing unsold. CMHC warns that fewer starts today can mean fewer completions in the years ahead.

And 1,337 of these finished homes have been standing unsold for more than two years already.

Somebody is carrying interest, taxes and strata fees on every one of them, every month. If you are buying, that carrying cost is the strongest card you hold. If you are selling, it is the clock your competition is running against.

Before you ask what the seller will come down, ask what else you could buy.

FAQ

Are these 5,000 condos empty?

No. The count measures homes that have not sold, not homes that are unoccupied. These are completed buildings with residents already living in them. Nothing in the data measures occupancy.

Can I just find these on MLS?

Some of them. Practice varies by project, and a share of developer inventory moves through sales centres rather than public listings. Ask the sales centre directly for the current availability list.

Does a glut mean I can expect a big discount?

Not automatically. 842 of these homes are in the City of Vancouver and more than eight in ten are elsewhere in the region. What matters is how many comparable homes compete with the one you want, not the regional total.

Why would a developer give a credit instead of lowering the price?

A published price cut reprices every remaining home in the building and every home already sold. A credit at closing moves money to one buyer without changing the price sheet or the recorded sale price.

Is the proposed unsold condo tax law?

No. The B.C. NDP has promised a tax on unsold condos as part of its campaign ahead of the October 24 election. There is no bill and no legislation behind it.

BOOK A PRICING STRATEGY CALL

CURIOUS WHAT YOUR CURRENT PLACE IS WORTH? GET A HOME EVALUATION

SEE THE TRUE COST OF OWNING VS. WHAT YOU THINK YOU'RE PAYING

No pressure. Just strategy before the noise.

Sources: Real Property Data, "Finished. Occupied. Unsold.", Metro Vancouver, September 2026. CMHC Housing Supply Report, Fall 2026. BCFSA Consumer Guide to Pre-sale Real Estate Purchases. Altus Group, December 2025. BCREA CEO video, June 2026.

QUICK ANSWER

Vancouver's purpose-built rental market is 19% below its July 2023 peak, yet Downtown condo prices have not dropped with it. August SnapStats data shows a 22% sales ratio for condos priced $500,000 to $600,000 and a 7% sales ratio for condos priced $700,000 to $800,000. Downtown behaves like a group of small markets, so your building, unit type and price range decide more than the citywide headline.

If you'd rather watch than read, hit play below.

Vancouver rents are down 19% from their July 2023 peak, while Downtown Vancouver's median condo sale price rose last month. Both are true at the same time. The difference comes down to what sold, which price ranges are moving, and who is buying.

This post breaks down the August SnapStats for Downtown Vancouver, the sales ratio by price range, why investors and owner-occupiers are reaching different conclusions from the same market, and what those numbers mean for your condo.

WHAT THE 19% RENT DECLINE MEASURES

Across Canada, asking rents are down close to 5% year over year, and British Columbia is in a similar range. Vancouver's purpose-built rental market has fallen harder than any other major market in the country. It now sits 19% below its July 2023 peak.

Purpose-built rentals are buildings constructed to be rented. They are a different market from privately owned Downtown condos that individual investors rent out. The 19% describes purpose-built buildings. It doesn't necessarily apply to the condo you own or the one you're looking at.

The direction still matters. Rents have softened, and by a lot. Normally that pressure works its way into condo prices. Lower rents mean weaker returns for investors, and weaker returns mean investors pay less. Downtown Vancouver feels that more than most places because investors make up a big part of the buyer pool.

WHY PURPOSE-BUILT RENTALS ARE TAKING THE MOST PRESSURE

CMHC spent several years encouraging purpose-built construction because those buildings were seen as a stable, resilient investment. The incentives worked. Financing got cheaper, developers whose condo projects stopped making sense switched to rentals, and thousands of new units reached Metro Vancouver around the same time, all competing for the same renters.

Purpose-built operators now take longer to fill vacant units than a condo landlord with a single suite. The condo landlord cuts the asking rent to avoid an empty unit. Purpose-built operators tend to hold the advertised price and offer a free month or a signing bonus instead. A free month doesn't show up in asking-rent data the way a price cut does, so the 19% understates how far rents have fallen in practice.

WHAT THE AUGUST SNAPSTATS NUMBERS SHOW FOR DOWNTOWN

SnapStats Metro Vancouver Edition reported 922 active listings and 113 sales in Downtown Vancouver in August. That gives a 12% sales ratio, which is sales divided by active listings. Sales dropped 16% from July and inventory rose 1%. Days on market improved from 30 to 25, and homes sold for 100% of asking price on average.

That describes a market sitting near the edge of balanced, with fewer sales than the month before.

WHY THE MEDIAN PRICE JUMPED 11%

The median sale price rose from $805,000 in July to $895,000 in August, an 11% increase in one month. The median tells you what sold, not what any individual property is worth.

Only 113 units sold in August. If more of those were larger or higher-end condos and fewer were entry level, the median goes up without values rising across the board. A $700,000 condo didn't turn into a $777,000 condo because the median moved 11%. The mix of what sold changed.

SALES RATIO BY PRICE RANGE

Splitting Downtown sales by price range shows where buyers are buying.

• $500,000 to $600,000: 22%

• $600,000 to $700,000: 11%

• $700,000 to $800,000: 7%

• $800,000 to $900,000: 8%

• $900,000 to $1 million: 13%

• $1 million to $1.25 million: 12%

• Studio and 1 bedroom condos overall: 13%

The strongest part of the Downtown condo market is the $500,000 to $600,000 entry point, selling at nearly double the rate of the next best range. That's the opposite of what falling rents should do. If rents were pulling the floor out from under Downtown condos, entry level would be struggling. It's moving the fastest.

WHY INVESTORS AND OWNER OCCUPIERS REACH DIFFERENT ANSWERS

An investor compares the rent coming in with the mortgage, strata fees, property tax, maintenance and vacancy going out. When rents fall and those costs stay flat, cash flow gets worse. Returns shrink unless the purchase price drops to match. Some investors who would have bought at last year's numbers are stepping back to wait.

An owner occupier isn't running that calculation. They aren't renting the condo to anyone. They're buying housing security, building equity and getting control over their own cost of living instead of a landlord's. A weaker rental market puts real pressure on investor returns, but it doesn't automatically cut what an owner occupier will pay by the same amount.

WHAT ELSE FITS THE DATA

SnapStats can't prove why this is happening, so no single explanation covers it. These factors fit the data:

• Entry level condos are still within reach compared with most of Vancouver housing.

• Owner occupiers are stepping into some of the demand investors have left behind.

• Prices are already below their previous highs, so part of the pressure on investors is already built into what condos sell for.

• Rates and financing shape what buyers can afford.

• Supply isn't spread evenly. Some price ranges and unit types have far more listings than others.

CMHC's research backs up part of this. Its Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report carries the headline "Ownership supply under pressure as rentals dominate new construction." Condo presales have collapsed across the country, and CMHC's deputy chief economist named Vancouver specifically. The warning was that fewer starts today means supply constraints years from now.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

If you own a Downtown condo

Don't read "rents down 19%" and assume your property lost the same amount. Look at your building, your unit type and your price range, then look at the condos competing directly with yours.

If you're investing

Pay closer attention to the relationship between rent and purchase price. A condo that costs less than it did in 2022 isn't automatically a good return. Run the numbers on the specific unit, including current rent, strata fees, financing, taxes, maintenance and vacancy.

If you're buying

The $700,000 to $900,000 range has the most inventory and the weakest sales ratios right now. That's where you have the most room to negotiate.

If you're selling

Don't price off a Downtown-wide median. Your building, floor plan, condition, price range and direct competition decide your result. The headline doesn't.

WHERE I LAND

Vancouver rents have fallen hard, and Downtown condo prices haven't followed them down. Rent is one input into what a condo is worth. Downtown is behaving like a collection of small markets, each with its own supply, its own buyers and its own demand. A citywide headline is rarely the number to base a property decision on.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

How much have Vancouver rents fallen?

Vancouver's purpose-built rental market is 19% below its July 2023 peak. Across Canada, asking rents are down close to 5% year over year. The 19% applies to purpose-built rental buildings, not to privately owned condos.

Why did Downtown condo prices go up when rents fell?

The Downtown median sale price rose from $805,000 in July to $895,000 in August. Only 113 units sold, so a shift toward larger or higher-end condos moves the median without raising values across the board.

Which Downtown Vancouver condo price range is selling fastest?

The $500,000 to $600,000 range had a 22% sales ratio in August, nearly double the next best range.

Where do buyers have the most room to negotiate?

The $700,000 to $900,000 range has the most inventory and the weakest sales ratios, at 7% for $700,000 to $800,000 and 8% for $800,000 to $900,000.

Should investors buy Downtown condos while rents are falling?

Falling rents put pressure on investor returns, so the answer depends on the specific unit. Run the numbers on current rent, strata fees, financing, taxes, maintenance and vacancy. A condo priced below its 2022 level isn't automatically a good return.

BOOK A PRICING STRATEGY CALL

CURIOUS WHAT YOUR CURRENT PLACE IS WORTH? GET A HOME EVALUATION

SEE THE TRUE COST OF OWNING VS. WHAT YOU THINK YOU'RE PAYING

No pressure. Just strategy before the noise.

Sources: SnapStats Metro Vancouver Edition (August 2026 data), CMHC Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report.

Quick answer: Greater Vancouver REALTORS lowered its 2026 sales forecast to 23,050 transactions, down from an earlier target of 24,900. Condos are absorbing most of the weakness while attached and detached homes are holding closer to flat. Inventory has started to pull back, which could support prices even without a jump in buyer demand.

If you'd rather watch than read, hit play below.

The recovery that didn't show up

At the start of the year, GVR forecast sales across Greater Vancouver would climb 4.6 percent, landing at 24,900 by year end. That forecast has now been revised down to 23,050, a 3.2 percent drop from last year.

Sales are sitting 6.2 percent below GVR's own target on a year to date basis. July came in 18.6 percent below the 10 year seasonal average for that month.

This isn't a market falling apart. It's a market that keeps trying to recover and can't build momentum. June showed signs of improvement. July pulled back again.

Why buyer demand hasn't returned

Inventory is elevated, so buyers have choice. Prices have already corrected, so affordability has improved. Borrowing costs have held steady at 2.25 percent since October of last year, according to the Bank of Canada.

On paper, conditions favour buyers more than they have in years. Sales remain weak anyway.

GVR points to a few explanations, including a slowdown in immigration, fewer investors participating, and ongoing trade uncertainty with the US. One data point from the Bank of Canada's Survey of Consumer Expectations stands out: buyers in British Columbia report more hesitancy to participate than buyers elsewhere in Canada, while sellers report more eagerness to list than sellers elsewhere in the country.

Vancouver doesn't have a shortage of homes for sale right now. It has a shortage of buyers ready to decide.

Condos are absorbing most of the weakness

GVR's 2026 sales forecast by property type:

• Apartments: down 8.6 percent

• Attached homes: up 2.2 percent

• Detached: up 1.1 percent

Two property types are close to flat. One is doing almost all the pulling back.

I have a client right now who owns a half duplex and a condo, both in Vancouver East. The duplex will sell for less than they'd hoped, but they purchased back in 2012, so there's real appreciation built in. They'll come out ahead there. The condo tells a different story. They'll still come out ahead, but the subarea data shows softer performance in that segment than in the duplex's right now. Same owner, same part of the city, two segments reacting differently.

When someone tells you the Vancouver market is down, the real question is which Vancouver market. A Downtown one bedroom and an East Van detached home are not behaving the same way this year.

The number worth watching closer than the sales figure

New listings have started to decline. Active inventory is coming down from recent highs, and GVR expects that trend to continue.

A market doesn't need more buyers to tighten. It can also tighten with fewer sellers.

Picture a hundred listings and ten buyers. Now picture seventy five listings and the same ten buyers. Demand hasn't moved. The balance has.

Prices could hold without the market recovering

GVR's price forecast for year end:

• Apartments: $750,000, down 0.7 percent

• Attached: $1,215,000, down 1.2 percent

• Detached: $2,030,000, down 1.4 percent

• Market total: $1,230,000, up 0.2 percent

Every individual category is forecast to decline. The overall market average is forecast to rise. That's a mix effect. If detached homes make up a larger share of sales relative to condos this year, the average shifts up even while every segment on its own is softening.

The category you're buying or selling in tells you more than the market total ever will.

What this means if you're selling

Buyers have options right now and aren't feeling urgency. Overpricing gets punished fast, especially in the condo segment where inventory is heaviest.

The comparable sale from three weeks ago carries more weight than what your neighbour listed for and hasn't sold. Testing a price five percent above the evidence tends to produce the same result: days on market climb, interest moves to the next listing, and a price reduction follows from a weaker position than the first number would have held.

What this means if you're buying

Selection, time, and room to negotiate all favour buyers right now.

If inventory really has started to peak, the strongest negotiating window may come before the market's recovery is obvious to everyone else. Leverage tends to be strongest right before it gets noticed, and weakest right after.

What actually changed

Demand is weak, and condos are absorbing most of it. At the same time, new listings are starting to pull back.

The next phase of this market may not come from a flood of buyers returning. It could come from fewer properties available to compete over. That shift in inventory is the number worth watching closer than the sales forecast.

FAQ

Is the Vancouver real estate market down in 2026? Sales are behind GVR's original forecast for the year, and the association has revised its 2026 target down to 23,050 transactions. Performance varies significantly by property type and neighbourhood.

Why are condo sales weaker than detached and attached homes? GVR's 2026 forecast shows apartments down 8.6 percent while attached and detached homes are close to flat. Reduced investor participation, affordability sensitivity among entry-level buyers, and heavier condo inventory are likely contributing factors.

Will Vancouver home prices go up or down in 2026? GVR forecasts a slight decline in every individual property category, apartments, attached, and detached, but a slight increase in the overall market average. That's a mix effect caused by the proportion of higher priced sales shifting, not a rise in individual property values.

Is now a good time to buy in Vancouver? Buyers currently have more selection and negotiating room than they've had in a few years. Inventory has started to decline, which could reduce that leverage before broader market conditions shift.

Is now a good time to sell in Vancouver? Pricing accurately matters more than usual right now. Buyers have options and are comparing listings closely, so overpriced homes tend to sit and require reductions.

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