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More than 5,000 finished condos across Metro Vancouver have never sold, and the homes sitting longest are the big ones, not the shoeboxes. Developers rarely cut the published price because a public discount reprices every unit in the building, so the money moves through closing credits and incentives instead. That means the sold comparables you pull on a new building can read higher than what buyers actually paid

Prefer to watch? The video version is below. The written breakdown follows.

There are two numbers in the September Real Property Data briefing that do not sit comfortably together.

More than 5,000 finished homes in Metro Vancouver have keys ready and no buyer. At the same time, developers are holding their price sheets steady.

Both are true, and the reason why is the most useful thing in this report for anyone buying or selling a Vancouver condo right now.

WHAT 5,000 UNSOLD HOMES ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE

Real Property Data counted more than 5,000 unsold condominium homes across 164 completed Metro Vancouver projects as of September 2026. Not under construction. Finished, with people already living in the buildings.

Valued at the prices comparable homes achieved in 2026, that is $4.45 billion of housing. About 4.3 million square feet of it.

That figure estimates what the homes are worth. It says nothing about what developers owe on them.

Ownership is concentrated. Of the 89 developers holding finished unsold stock, five hold 1,809 units between them. Ten hold roughly half of everything.

THE SUPPLY YOUR SEARCH DOESN'T SHOW

Your listing app shows you resale condos and some developer units. The rest moves through sales centres.

Practice varies by project. Some developer homes are listed on MLS and some are sold only in the sales centre, so what you see on your phone is a sample of the market rather than the whole of it.

That matters before you decide what any condo is worth.

WHO IS ACTUALLY STUCK

The story going around is that this is a glut of tiny investor shoeboxes nobody wants. The data says the opposite, and the gradient has no reversals in it.

Share of each size cohort still unsold:

Under 500 sq ft: 12.2 percent
500 to 699 sq ft: 13.6 percent
700 to 899 sq ft: 21.1 percent
900 to 1,099 sq ft: 22.9 percent
1,100 to 1,499 sq ft: 29.4 percent
1,500 sq ft and up: 41.6 percent

By bedroom count it runs the same direction. 27.3 percent of three-bedroom homes are unsold against 13.7 percent of one-bedrooms. The median unsold home is 850 square feet. The median one that sold is 735.

Height tells the same story. 24.3 percent of homes above the twentieth floor are unsold, which is the stock that carried the pro forma when these buildings were planned.

If you have spent four years trying to buy more space in this city, that is the best news in the report.

WHERE THE BACKLOG SITS

One caution before you get excited.

Of those 5,000-plus homes, Real Property Data counts 842 in the City of Vancouver. More than eight in ten sit somewhere else in the region.

This is not remote inventory, though. 3,186 of these homes, 64 percent of the total, are within 800 metres of a SkyTrain station. 1,460 are within 400 metres.

So the stock is transit-connected and it is mostly not in Vancouver. A condo forty minutes from the neighbourhood you want is no substitute for the neighbourhood you want. Your competition is the set of homes you would realistically choose instead. Same area, similar size, similar monthly costs.

The regional number tells you the market has a problem. The local count tells you how much room you have.

HOW A FINISHED BUILDING ENDS UP UNSOLD

It starts with how these projects get financed.

A condo tower takes years. Developers sell presales to secure construction financing. You will hear that lenders require 70 percent of a building pre-sold. Altus Group describes that figure as a lending convention rather than a regulation, and BCREA's CEO puts the working threshold closer to 60 percent. It varies by project and by lender.

So a tower can break ground with a third of its homes unsold. Demand shifts during the build. By completion, some of those homes never found a buyer.

There is a second route in. Presale buyers who signed in a stronger market are closing at today's values. BCFSA warns that a lender can appraise a finished presale below the contract price, and the buyer covers that gap in cash. Picture a $900,000 contract and an $800,000 appraisal.

Walking away carries its own bill. BCFSA warns the buyer risks the deposit, and that the developer can pursue the difference between the contract price and whatever the home eventually sells for, plus legal costs.

WHY DEVELOPERS WON'T PUBLISH A DISCOUNT

Here is the part that explains everything else.

A published price cut reprices the entire building. Every home still available, and every home already sold to somebody who signed last year. A developer will not do that to his own price sheet, and his lender has a view on it.

What he will do is deal with you one buyer at a time, at the table, if you ask.

WHAT A SALES CENTRE OFFERED MY CLIENTS

Three months ago I was working with clients on a completed building in Surrey. People had already moved in. These were finished homes that had never sold.

The sales centre told us they would come down $5,000 on a home listed at $369,000. Then they told us how.

The contract price would stay at $369,000. The $5,000 would come back to my clients as a rebate at closing.

I asked why. The answer was that they did not want the lower number showing up on MLS. The moment it does, the next buyer walking into that building has a new starting point, or asks them to match it on the spot.

So the sale records at $369,000. My clients pay $364,000. Anybody pulling sold comparables in that building sees the first number.

That is one building and one conversation, and I cannot speak for every developer. It did change how I read sold data on new construction, and it is why I always ask what is coming off at closing.

My clients did not take that deal. They walked, because they wanted more space than that home had. Which is the size data all over again.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

IF YOU ARE BUYING

Widen the search. Put completed developer homes beside resale in the same area. Ask the sales centre for the full availability list and which homes you can walk through today.

Ask a sharper question than how the project is doing. Ask how many homes are unsold on your floor and the two floors above it. That is who you compete with the day you go to sell.

Negotiate the whole package. Price, closing credit, parking, storage, upgrades, appliance package, completion date.

Price the extras at what they are worth to you. A $15,000 upgrade in a brochure adds $15,000 to the brochure. A parking stall you will never use is worth nothing.

Compare the effective number. One condo at $800,000 with no credit, another at $820,000 with a real $30,000 credit, nets out at $790,000 before taxes and other costs. Confirm with your lender how a credit gets treated before you count on it.

Get every term in writing. The dollar amount, the timing, the conditions. A promise in a sales centre does not close.

IF YOU ARE SELLING

Everything above is pointed at you.

Your competition is bigger than the resale listings you can see. Somewhere near you a developer is holding finished homes, carrying a construction loan, and watching his own month end.

Think about what that sales centre offered my clients. Five thousand dollars at closing, and the price sheet never moved. You cannot do that. You cannot hand somebody a closing credit, a parking stall, an appliance package and a new home warranty and keep your list price where it is.

So stop pricing against resale comparables alone. Find the closest completed buildings still holding developer homes, work out what a buyer nets there after credits, and price against that number.

Then lead with what a developer cannot put on a price sheet. Your building has years of strata minutes, a depreciation report, and a contingency fund with a real balance. A new building has a disclosure statement and a promise. Your buyer walks through the actual home and gets keys, with no completion window and no deposit sitting in trust while a building goes up.

Have your strata documents ready the day you list.

WHERE I LAND

Real Property Data estimates about 40 months to clear what is already built, at the pace of the first half of 2026, roughly 125 presale sales a month across these buildings. That assumes nothing else completes, and 2026 has been a heavy completion year.

Meanwhile CMHC reports Metro Vancouver condo starts fell another 40 percent in the first half of 2026, the weakest first half since 2011. A start is counted once the concrete footings are poured, so that is a separate measurement from finished homes standing unsold. CMHC warns that fewer starts today can mean fewer completions in the years ahead.

And 1,337 of these finished homes have been standing unsold for more than two years already.

Somebody is carrying interest, taxes and strata fees on every one of them, every month. If you are buying, that carrying cost is the strongest card you hold. If you are selling, it is the clock your competition is running against.

Before you ask what the seller will come down, ask what else you could buy.

FAQ

Are these 5,000 condos empty?

No. The count measures homes that have not sold, not homes that are unoccupied. These are completed buildings with residents already living in them. Nothing in the data measures occupancy.

Can I just find these on MLS?

Some of them. Practice varies by project, and a share of developer inventory moves through sales centres rather than public listings. Ask the sales centre directly for the current availability list.

Does a glut mean I can expect a big discount?

Not automatically. 842 of these homes are in the City of Vancouver and more than eight in ten are elsewhere in the region. What matters is how many comparable homes compete with the one you want, not the regional total.

Why would a developer give a credit instead of lowering the price?

A published price cut reprices every remaining home in the building and every home already sold. A credit at closing moves money to one buyer without changing the price sheet or the recorded sale price.

Is the proposed unsold condo tax law?

No. The B.C. NDP has promised a tax on unsold condos as part of its campaign ahead of the October 24 election. There is no bill and no legislation behind it.

BOOK A PRICING STRATEGY CALL

CURIOUS WHAT YOUR CURRENT PLACE IS WORTH? GET A HOME EVALUATION

SEE THE TRUE COST OF OWNING VS. WHAT YOU THINK YOU'RE PAYING

No pressure. Just strategy before the noise.

Sources: Real Property Data, "Finished. Occupied. Unsold.", Metro Vancouver, September 2026. CMHC Housing Supply Report, Fall 2026. BCFSA Consumer Guide to Pre-sale Real Estate Purchases. Altus Group, December 2025. BCREA CEO video, June 2026.

If you're weighing a Vancouver presale condo against a resale unit right now, the math behind that decision has changed — and not in a small way. For about a decade, buying presale was a genuine strategy. Today, for most buyers, it isn't the obvious win it used to be. I know because I made the call myself, and I paid for the lesson.

Here's what actually changed, and how I'd think it through if I were deciding today.

The presale pitch worked — for a decade

The pitch was simple, and for years it was true. You buy early. You lock today's price. The building takes three, four, five years to finish. While you wait, the market climbs — and you walk into a unit worth more than you paid.

Between 2015 and 2021, in a market rising 10, 15, even 20 percent a year, that worked. Locking in a price and waiting was a real strategy that made real money for real people.

But the whole thing rested on one condition: prices keep going up while you wait. That was never guaranteed. It just felt like it was.

The part most buyers never separated out

Here's what gets missed. In a presale, the appreciation wasn't a bonus. It was your payment — the compensation you received in exchange for taking on four real risks most buyers never fully price.

When you buy a presale, you're not just buying a condo. You're buying four risks stacked on top of it:

• Construction risk — the building can come in late, or different from the renderings. Materials get swapped. Views get blocked by towers that didn't exist when you signed.

• Financing risk — you qualify today, but you close in three or four years, under conditions nobody can predict.

• Timeline risk — your life stays on hold while a building finishes on someone else's schedule.

• Market risk — if prices fall between signing and completion, you reach the end of a multi-year wait holding a unit worth less than you paid.

For years, appreciation covered all four. That was the deal.

The number the sales centre won't give you

Market risk deserves a closer look, because it's designed to be hard to see.

You pass a sales centre. A few weeks later a sign goes up: "60% sold." Something in you relaxes. The building's moving. You're right on time.

But that number leaves out the two things that actually matter. It doesn't tell you over what period. And it doesn't tell you 60 percent of what — the whole building, or just the units released in one early phase priced to step up later.

The number that would actually measure your risk is how close the project is to the pre-sales it needs to secure construction financing. Lenders generally want to see a significant share of units pre-sold — often in the range of 60 to 70 percent — before releasing that financing. That live figure sits with the developer's management, not the front desk. I work in this industry, and even I can't walk in and get a straight answer without knowing someone on the inside.

That's not a conspiracy. It's marketing doing exactly what it's built to do. But it means the number you can see is the reassuring one, and the number that would tell you your real risk is the one nobody's handing out.

What happened to me

When I bought my presale in 2022, the developer gave me roughly a hundred thousand dollars in decorator allowances and incentives. It felt like a tremendous deal — like I'd won before I'd even moved in. From the outside, you'd assume I was protected. A hundred grand in credits, how do you lose?

I sold it in 2025. I still lost money.

Not because the incentives weren't real — they were. It's that the market underneath the deal moved, and when that happens, a hundred thousand in allowances doesn't save you. It just changes the number you lose by.

That's the part I want you to sit with. The incentives weren't the deal. They were the distraction from the deal. They had me looking at the credit instead of the one question that actually decided the outcome: was the market going to pay me to take this risk, or charge me for it?

I'm not sharing this to complain. I made the call and I own it. I'm sharing it because I paid for a lesson a lot of buyers are learning right now.

Watch the full breakdown

Watch the full video on YouTube

The exit ramp that closed

It's not just my situation. The benchmark apartment price in Metro Vancouver is down close to 8 percent from a year ago (April 2026 data). For buyers who signed at peak in 2021 and 2022, the compensation didn't just shrink — it went negative.

And the escape hatch they were counting on is gone. There used to be an active assignment market: if your plans changed, you could sell your contract before completion, usually to an investor planning to flip. That market existed because investors believed prices would keep rising. The investors left. When nobody's buying to flip, there's nobody to assign to — not at a profit, sometimes not at all.

Peak-price buyers, completing into a lower market, with the exit they were counting on closed. That's not a price dip. That's a trap.

The real question isn't presale or resale

Here's the whole thing in one idea. The question was never "presale or resale?"

The real question is: am I being paid to take this risk, or am I paying extra for it?

For a decade, presale paid you. You took on the risk, and appreciation was your reward. In 2026, for most buyers, that's flipped. You carry the same four risks — but instead of being paid, you're often paying a premium for them, while a finished resale unit sits a few blocks away, cheaper, that you can walk through today.

Early used to mean ahead. Right now, for most buyers, early means exposed.

The supporting data is unusually clear. Metro Vancouver had zero concrete condo launches in Q1 2026, down from 152 the year before — the new-supply pipeline at the top end has effectively shut down. At the same time, CMHC data shows 4,376 completed and unsold condo units across Metro Vancouver as of May 2026, up sharply year over year — units that are finished, standing, and unsold. And on the resale side, in many buildings a used unit now costs less than the brand-new one being sold next door. The premium presale used to command didn't just narrow. It flipped.

One more variable worth watching: the Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25 percent as of June 2026. If you sign a presale today, you qualify at completion, not at today's rate. I won't predict where rates go — but if you're running presale numbers, run them across a few different scenarios. That's the variable that can move the picture most.

So should you ever buy presale?

Yes — sometimes. Anyone who tells you it's always one answer is selling you something.

There's a real presale buyer, even now: long time horizon, strong cash position, genuinely wants new construction, looking in a pocket where resale inventory is thin, buying from a developer with a real delivery record — and, most importantly, able to absorb a worst case without it breaking them. If that's you, some of the incentives developers are offering right now can be genuine value.

But that's not most people. Most buyers I talk to can find a solid resale unit in a well-run building, available now, for less money and less risk — and get on with their life instead of waiting three years to find out whether the floor plan they picked on paper actually works for how they live.

Four things I'd check before deciding

These are the four things I wish I'd done more carefully in 2022:

1. Run the side-by-side honestly. Same neighbourhood, same bedroom count, similar size. What does resale cost today? What do you actually know about it? How soon can you move in? That comparison alone settles most of these decisions.

2. Get a real read on the project's financing position — from somewhere other than the sales centre, because that's not where that answer lives. The further a project sits from the threshold it needs to get built, the more delay and cancellation risk you're carrying. That's what your own representation is for.

3. Treat any discount as a risk premium, not a win. A big incentive tells you the developer needs buyers. It doesn't tell you what the market will be worth when you close. Price the risk, not the discount.

4. Know your exit before you need one. If the plan was to assign the contract if things changed, that ramp is closed right now. Go in clear-eyed about what happens if your situation shifts.

The bottom line

Don't ask which one is better in the abstract. Ask whether you're being paid to take this risk, or paying for it. Right now, for most buyers, the answer points toward resale.

If you're working through this for a specific situation — a presale you're considering, or figuring out what's actually available in resale in the same neighbourhood — that's exactly the kind of conversation I have with people. No pitch. Just a straight look at your options.

Book a call — happy to give you an honest read on which side of that risk question you're on.

Chris Car Personal Real Estate Corporation | TRG The Residential Group Realty | Vancouver condo and strata specialist