Why Vancouver Condo Discounts Don't Show Up on MLS

QUICK ANSWER

More than 5,000 finished condos across Metro Vancouver have never sold, and the homes sitting longest are the big ones, not the shoeboxes. Developers rarely cut the published price because a public discount reprices every unit in the building, so the money moves through closing credits and incentives instead. That means the sold comparables you pull on a new building can read higher than what buyers actually paid

Prefer to watch? The video version is below. The written breakdown follows.

There are two numbers in the September Real Property Data briefing that do not sit comfortably together.

More than 5,000 finished homes in Metro Vancouver have keys ready and no buyer. At the same time, developers are holding their price sheets steady.

Both are true, and the reason why is the most useful thing in this report for anyone buying or selling a Vancouver condo right now.

WHAT 5,000 UNSOLD HOMES ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE

Real Property Data counted more than 5,000 unsold condominium homes across 164 completed Metro Vancouver projects as of September 2026. Not under construction. Finished, with people already living in the buildings.

Valued at the prices comparable homes achieved in 2026, that is $4.45 billion of housing. About 4.3 million square feet of it.

That figure estimates what the homes are worth. It says nothing about what developers owe on them.

Ownership is concentrated. Of the 89 developers holding finished unsold stock, five hold 1,809 units between them. Ten hold roughly half of everything.

THE SUPPLY YOUR SEARCH DOESN'T SHOW

Your listing app shows you resale condos and some developer units. The rest moves through sales centres.

Practice varies by project. Some developer homes are listed on MLS and some are sold only in the sales centre, so what you see on your phone is a sample of the market rather than the whole of it.

That matters before you decide what any condo is worth.

WHO IS ACTUALLY STUCK

The story going around is that this is a glut of tiny investor shoeboxes nobody wants. The data says the opposite, and the gradient has no reversals in it.

Share of each size cohort still unsold:

Under 500 sq ft: 12.2 percent
500 to 699 sq ft: 13.6 percent
700 to 899 sq ft: 21.1 percent
900 to 1,099 sq ft: 22.9 percent
1,100 to 1,499 sq ft: 29.4 percent
1,500 sq ft and up: 41.6 percent

By bedroom count it runs the same direction. 27.3 percent of three-bedroom homes are unsold against 13.7 percent of one-bedrooms. The median unsold home is 850 square feet. The median one that sold is 735.

Height tells the same story. 24.3 percent of homes above the twentieth floor are unsold, which is the stock that carried the pro forma when these buildings were planned.

If you have spent four years trying to buy more space in this city, that is the best news in the report.

WHERE THE BACKLOG SITS

One caution before you get excited.

Of those 5,000-plus homes, Real Property Data counts 842 in the City of Vancouver. More than eight in ten sit somewhere else in the region.

This is not remote inventory, though. 3,186 of these homes, 64 percent of the total, are within 800 metres of a SkyTrain station. 1,460 are within 400 metres.

So the stock is transit-connected and it is mostly not in Vancouver. A condo forty minutes from the neighbourhood you want is no substitute for the neighbourhood you want. Your competition is the set of homes you would realistically choose instead. Same area, similar size, similar monthly costs.

The regional number tells you the market has a problem. The local count tells you how much room you have.

HOW A FINISHED BUILDING ENDS UP UNSOLD

It starts with how these projects get financed.

A condo tower takes years. Developers sell presales to secure construction financing. You will hear that lenders require 70 percent of a building pre-sold. Altus Group describes that figure as a lending convention rather than a regulation, and BCREA's CEO puts the working threshold closer to 60 percent. It varies by project and by lender.

So a tower can break ground with a third of its homes unsold. Demand shifts during the build. By completion, some of those homes never found a buyer.

There is a second route in. Presale buyers who signed in a stronger market are closing at today's values. BCFSA warns that a lender can appraise a finished presale below the contract price, and the buyer covers that gap in cash. Picture a $900,000 contract and an $800,000 appraisal.

Walking away carries its own bill. BCFSA warns the buyer risks the deposit, and that the developer can pursue the difference between the contract price and whatever the home eventually sells for, plus legal costs.

WHY DEVELOPERS WON'T PUBLISH A DISCOUNT

Here is the part that explains everything else.

A published price cut reprices the entire building. Every home still available, and every home already sold to somebody who signed last year. A developer will not do that to his own price sheet, and his lender has a view on it.

What he will do is deal with you one buyer at a time, at the table, if you ask.

WHAT A SALES CENTRE OFFERED MY CLIENTS

Three months ago I was working with clients on a completed building in Surrey. People had already moved in. These were finished homes that had never sold.

The sales centre told us they would come down $5,000 on a home listed at $369,000. Then they told us how.

The contract price would stay at $369,000. The $5,000 would come back to my clients as a rebate at closing.

I asked why. The answer was that they did not want the lower number showing up on MLS. The moment it does, the next buyer walking into that building has a new starting point, or asks them to match it on the spot.

So the sale records at $369,000. My clients pay $364,000. Anybody pulling sold comparables in that building sees the first number.

That is one building and one conversation, and I cannot speak for every developer. It did change how I read sold data on new construction, and it is why I always ask what is coming off at closing.

My clients did not take that deal. They walked, because they wanted more space than that home had. Which is the size data all over again.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

IF YOU ARE BUYING

Widen the search. Put completed developer homes beside resale in the same area. Ask the sales centre for the full availability list and which homes you can walk through today.

Ask a sharper question than how the project is doing. Ask how many homes are unsold on your floor and the two floors above it. That is who you compete with the day you go to sell.

Negotiate the whole package. Price, closing credit, parking, storage, upgrades, appliance package, completion date.

Price the extras at what they are worth to you. A $15,000 upgrade in a brochure adds $15,000 to the brochure. A parking stall you will never use is worth nothing.

Compare the effective number. One condo at $800,000 with no credit, another at $820,000 with a real $30,000 credit, nets out at $790,000 before taxes and other costs. Confirm with your lender how a credit gets treated before you count on it.

Get every term in writing. The dollar amount, the timing, the conditions. A promise in a sales centre does not close.

IF YOU ARE SELLING

Everything above is pointed at you.

Your competition is bigger than the resale listings you can see. Somewhere near you a developer is holding finished homes, carrying a construction loan, and watching his own month end.

Think about what that sales centre offered my clients. Five thousand dollars at closing, and the price sheet never moved. You cannot do that. You cannot hand somebody a closing credit, a parking stall, an appliance package and a new home warranty and keep your list price where it is.

So stop pricing against resale comparables alone. Find the closest completed buildings still holding developer homes, work out what a buyer nets there after credits, and price against that number.

Then lead with what a developer cannot put on a price sheet. Your building has years of strata minutes, a depreciation report, and a contingency fund with a real balance. A new building has a disclosure statement and a promise. Your buyer walks through the actual home and gets keys, with no completion window and no deposit sitting in trust while a building goes up.

Have your strata documents ready the day you list.

WHERE I LAND

Real Property Data estimates about 40 months to clear what is already built, at the pace of the first half of 2026, roughly 125 presale sales a month across these buildings. That assumes nothing else completes, and 2026 has been a heavy completion year.

Meanwhile CMHC reports Metro Vancouver condo starts fell another 40 percent in the first half of 2026, the weakest first half since 2011. A start is counted once the concrete footings are poured, so that is a separate measurement from finished homes standing unsold. CMHC warns that fewer starts today can mean fewer completions in the years ahead.

And 1,337 of these finished homes have been standing unsold for more than two years already.

Somebody is carrying interest, taxes and strata fees on every one of them, every month. If you are buying, that carrying cost is the strongest card you hold. If you are selling, it is the clock your competition is running against.

Before you ask what the seller will come down, ask what else you could buy.

FAQ

Are these 5,000 condos empty?

No. The count measures homes that have not sold, not homes that are unoccupied. These are completed buildings with residents already living in them. Nothing in the data measures occupancy.

Can I just find these on MLS?

Some of them. Practice varies by project, and a share of developer inventory moves through sales centres rather than public listings. Ask the sales centre directly for the current availability list.

Does a glut mean I can expect a big discount?

Not automatically. 842 of these homes are in the City of Vancouver and more than eight in ten are elsewhere in the region. What matters is how many comparable homes compete with the one you want, not the regional total.

Why would a developer give a credit instead of lowering the price?

A published price cut reprices every remaining home in the building and every home already sold. A credit at closing moves money to one buyer without changing the price sheet or the recorded sale price.

Is the proposed unsold condo tax law?

No. The B.C. NDP has promised a tax on unsold condos as part of its campaign ahead of the October 24 election. There is no bill and no legislation behind it.

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No pressure. Just strategy before the noise.

Sources: Real Property Data, "Finished. Occupied. Unsold.", Metro Vancouver, September 2026. CMHC Housing Supply Report, Fall 2026. BCFSA Consumer Guide to Pre-sale Real Estate Purchases. Altus Group, December 2025. BCREA CEO video, June 2026.