GVR Downgraded Its 2026 Forecast: What It Means for Vancouver Buyers and Sellers

Quick answer: Greater Vancouver REALTORS lowered its 2026 sales forecast to 23,050 transactions, down from an earlier target of 24,900. Condos are absorbing most of the weakness while attached and detached homes are holding closer to flat. Inventory has started to pull back, which could support prices even without a jump in buyer demand.

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The recovery that didn't show up

At the start of the year, GVR forecast sales across Greater Vancouver would climb 4.6 percent, landing at 24,900 by year end. That forecast has now been revised down to 23,050, a 3.2 percent drop from last year.

Sales are sitting 6.2 percent below GVR's own target on a year to date basis. July came in 18.6 percent below the 10 year seasonal average for that month.

This isn't a market falling apart. It's a market that keeps trying to recover and can't build momentum. June showed signs of improvement. July pulled back again.

Why buyer demand hasn't returned

Inventory is elevated, so buyers have choice. Prices have already corrected, so affordability has improved. Borrowing costs have held steady at 2.25 percent since October of last year, according to the Bank of Canada.

On paper, conditions favour buyers more than they have in years. Sales remain weak anyway.

GVR points to a few explanations, including a slowdown in immigration, fewer investors participating, and ongoing trade uncertainty with the US. One data point from the Bank of Canada's Survey of Consumer Expectations stands out: buyers in British Columbia report more hesitancy to participate than buyers elsewhere in Canada, while sellers report more eagerness to list than sellers elsewhere in the country.

Vancouver doesn't have a shortage of homes for sale right now. It has a shortage of buyers ready to decide.

Condos are absorbing most of the weakness

GVR's 2026 sales forecast by property type:

• Apartments: down 8.6 percent

• Attached homes: up 2.2 percent

• Detached: up 1.1 percent

Two property types are close to flat. One is doing almost all the pulling back.

I have a client right now who owns a half duplex and a condo, both in Vancouver East. The duplex will sell for less than they'd hoped, but they purchased back in 2012, so there's real appreciation built in. They'll come out ahead there. The condo tells a different story. They'll still come out ahead, but the subarea data shows softer performance in that segment than in the duplex's right now. Same owner, same part of the city, two segments reacting differently.

When someone tells you the Vancouver market is down, the real question is which Vancouver market. A Downtown one bedroom and an East Van detached home are not behaving the same way this year.

The number worth watching closer than the sales figure

New listings have started to decline. Active inventory is coming down from recent highs, and GVR expects that trend to continue.

A market doesn't need more buyers to tighten. It can also tighten with fewer sellers.

Picture a hundred listings and ten buyers. Now picture seventy five listings and the same ten buyers. Demand hasn't moved. The balance has.

Prices could hold without the market recovering

GVR's price forecast for year end:

• Apartments: $750,000, down 0.7 percent

• Attached: $1,215,000, down 1.2 percent

• Detached: $2,030,000, down 1.4 percent

• Market total: $1,230,000, up 0.2 percent

Every individual category is forecast to decline. The overall market average is forecast to rise. That's a mix effect. If detached homes make up a larger share of sales relative to condos this year, the average shifts up even while every segment on its own is softening.

The category you're buying or selling in tells you more than the market total ever will.

What this means if you're selling

Buyers have options right now and aren't feeling urgency. Overpricing gets punished fast, especially in the condo segment where inventory is heaviest.

The comparable sale from three weeks ago carries more weight than what your neighbour listed for and hasn't sold. Testing a price five percent above the evidence tends to produce the same result: days on market climb, interest moves to the next listing, and a price reduction follows from a weaker position than the first number would have held.

What this means if you're buying

Selection, time, and room to negotiate all favour buyers right now.

If inventory really has started to peak, the strongest negotiating window may come before the market's recovery is obvious to everyone else. Leverage tends to be strongest right before it gets noticed, and weakest right after.

What actually changed

Demand is weak, and condos are absorbing most of it. At the same time, new listings are starting to pull back.

The next phase of this market may not come from a flood of buyers returning. It could come from fewer properties available to compete over. That shift in inventory is the number worth watching closer than the sales forecast.

FAQ

Is the Vancouver real estate market down in 2026? Sales are behind GVR's original forecast for the year, and the association has revised its 2026 target down to 23,050 transactions. Performance varies significantly by property type and neighbourhood.

Why are condo sales weaker than detached and attached homes? GVR's 2026 forecast shows apartments down 8.6 percent while attached and detached homes are close to flat. Reduced investor participation, affordability sensitivity among entry-level buyers, and heavier condo inventory are likely contributing factors.

Will Vancouver home prices go up or down in 2026? GVR forecasts a slight decline in every individual property category, apartments, attached, and detached, but a slight increase in the overall market average. That's a mix effect caused by the proportion of higher priced sales shifting, not a rise in individual property values.

Is now a good time to buy in Vancouver? Buyers currently have more selection and negotiating room than they've had in a few years. Inventory has started to decline, which could reduce that leverage before broader market conditions shift.

Is now a good time to sell in Vancouver? Pricing accurately matters more than usual right now. Buyers have options and are comparing listings closely, so overpriced homes tend to sit and require reductions.

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